As a person of mathematical inclination, I have been interested in the relationship between statements about scores here on Target Talk and actual scores posted for various PTOs and contests. After collecting data for the last couple of months, I have arrived at several empirical formulas that connect the scores and the statements. I would like to share these with you.
Statement: “My average is X.”
Empirical formula: Sum all of the scores you had ever shot and divide by the number of shots. Then throw this number out and just use your highest score.
Statement: “I am a XXXs shooter.” As in: “I am a 560s shooter.”
Empirical formula: Find the median value of your scores for the last year. Then toss this out, add 10 to your highest score and round up to the next number divisible by 10.
Statement: “I have a buddy who is a 5X0s shooter.”
Empirical formula: Find the median value of your buddy’s last 6 scores and add one half of the standard deviation. Then dump this and just use either 570s if you are talking about an American shooter or 580s if it’s a Russian or Chinese shooter.
Statement: “That is the worst I have ever shot!”
Empirical formula: Find the minima of a plot of your scores over your shooting career and compare this to the score in question. Forget this and use the statement if either of these is true.
a. The score is worse that that of the buddy you were competing against, no matter what the actual score might be; or
b. The score is worse than your Expected Score (see next).
Statement: “I expect to shoot an X” (The Expected Score)
Empirical formula: Perform a linear regression analysis on your last 15 scores and obtain the most likely value. Ignore this, add 10 to your highest score, and round up to the nearest 10.
I'm still working on the postal scores. That may take some time.
lrw-at-bitplayer.net.48387.0
Shooting Math
Moderators: rexifelis, pilkguns
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fred
Hits the Bullseye (score of 11) NT
: As a person of mathematical inclination, I have been interested in the relationship between statements about scores here on Target Talk and actual scores posted for various PTOs and contests. After collecting data for the last couple of months, I have arrived at several empirical formulas that connect the scores and the statements. I would like to share these with you.
: Statement: “My average is X.”
: Empirical formula: Sum all of the scores you had ever shot and divide by the number of shots. Then throw this number out and just use your highest score.
: Statement: “I am a XXXs shooter.” As in: “I am a 560s shooter.”
: Empirical formula: Find the median value of your scores for the last year. Then toss this out, add 10 to your highest score and round up to the next number divisible by 10.
: Statement: “I have a buddy who is a 5X0s shooter.”
: Empirical formula: Find the median value of your buddy’s last 6 scores and add one half of the standard deviation. Then dump this and just use either 570s if you are talking about an American shooter or 580s if it’s a Russian or Chinese shooter.
: Statement: “That is the worst I have ever shot!”
: Empirical formula: Find the minima of a plot of your scores over your shooting career and compare this to the score in question. Forget this and use the statement if either of these is true.
: a. The score is worse that that of the buddy you were competing against, no matter what the actual score might be; or
: b. The score is worse than your Expected Score (see next).
: Statement: “I expect to shoot an X” (The Expected Score)
: Empirical formula: Perform a linear regression analysis on your last 15 scores and obtain the most likely value. Ignore this, add 10 to your highest score, and round up to the nearest 10.
: I'm still working on the postal scores. That may take some time.
frbauer-at-msn.com.48388.48387
: Statement: “My average is X.”
: Empirical formula: Sum all of the scores you had ever shot and divide by the number of shots. Then throw this number out and just use your highest score.
: Statement: “I am a XXXs shooter.” As in: “I am a 560s shooter.”
: Empirical formula: Find the median value of your scores for the last year. Then toss this out, add 10 to your highest score and round up to the next number divisible by 10.
: Statement: “I have a buddy who is a 5X0s shooter.”
: Empirical formula: Find the median value of your buddy’s last 6 scores and add one half of the standard deviation. Then dump this and just use either 570s if you are talking about an American shooter or 580s if it’s a Russian or Chinese shooter.
: Statement: “That is the worst I have ever shot!”
: Empirical formula: Find the minima of a plot of your scores over your shooting career and compare this to the score in question. Forget this and use the statement if either of these is true.
: a. The score is worse that that of the buddy you were competing against, no matter what the actual score might be; or
: b. The score is worse than your Expected Score (see next).
: Statement: “I expect to shoot an X” (The Expected Score)
: Empirical formula: Perform a linear regression analysis on your last 15 scores and obtain the most likely value. Ignore this, add 10 to your highest score, and round up to the nearest 10.
: I'm still working on the postal scores. That may take some time.
frbauer-at-msn.com.48388.48387
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william
a missing term
I'm not sure of it's value, but there is a coefficient for adding in the relative cost of the equipment used.
politt-at-1stcounsel.com.48402.48387
politt-at-1stcounsel.com.48402.48387
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Warren
Re: Shooting Math
I enjoyed your mathematical analysis very much, and have to say in many cases you're not far wide of the mark.
Granted we as shooters are a little optimistic about our past and future performances. I can say that with the passing of years, most shooters become more realistic about both. We're really no different to any other sporting group - golfers and fishermen spring to mind - and while there are major differences in how participants are rated or scored, the underlying similarity is we're all human.
There is one huge difference between ours and most other sports however. Shooting at home could be considered one sport. Shooting in competition is altogether another. If you can run a 4-minute mile while training, chances are you will do much the same at a big athletic meet - the extra adrenalyn rush might even help. But beyond using Mick Gault's method of running around the block before each 10-shot series to shoot while winded, I don't know of any way of simulating match nerves, distractions, racing pulse, etc, etc.
.48460.48387
Granted we as shooters are a little optimistic about our past and future performances. I can say that with the passing of years, most shooters become more realistic about both. We're really no different to any other sporting group - golfers and fishermen spring to mind - and while there are major differences in how participants are rated or scored, the underlying similarity is we're all human.
There is one huge difference between ours and most other sports however. Shooting at home could be considered one sport. Shooting in competition is altogether another. If you can run a 4-minute mile while training, chances are you will do much the same at a big athletic meet - the extra adrenalyn rush might even help. But beyond using Mick Gault's method of running around the block before each 10-shot series to shoot while winded, I don't know of any way of simulating match nerves, distractions, racing pulse, etc, etc.
.48460.48387