Lower AP and pistol prices?

sparky · Post by **sparky** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:58 am

Now that Euro has been trending downward against the dollar for the past five years and is approaching all time lows, should we expect prices on European pistols and air pistols to also trend back downward? What do y'all think?

Rover · Post by **Rover** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:07 pm

I think it's time for my next European vacation.

Isabel1130 · Post by **Isabel1130** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:52 pm

Real inflation has been running about 8 to 10 percent a year in the US since 2008. It may be the same for Europe. My guess, the fact that the prices on the euro guns has not gone up in the last four years is reflecting the stronger dollar. I dont think you will see any decrease to speak of unless you get lucky when the euro disintigrates, and the manufacturing countries convert back to a national currency.

cgroppi · Post by **cgroppi** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:41 pm

Isabel1130 wrote:Real inflation has been running about 8 to 10 percent a year in the US since 2008. It may be the same for Europe. My guess, the fact that the prices on the euro guns has not gone up in the last four years is reflecting the stronger dollar. I dont think you will see any decrease to speak of unless you get lucky when the euro disintigrates, and the manufacturing countries convert back to a national currency.

The data do not support the conclusion that the strong dollar has kept euro gun prices constant.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=5Y

The exchange rate has bounced back and forth 3 times between a strong and weak dollar (~25% variations) since 2008. European target gun prices have remained more or less constant. 8-10% inflation between 2008 and now would have resulted in a price increase of over 50% if that number applied to target pistols, easily swamping the variation in exchange rate (which isn't monotonic anyway).

Isabel1130 · Post by **Isabel1130** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:14 pm

cgroppi wrote:
Isabel1130 wrote:Real inflation has been running about 8 to 10 percent a year in the US since 2008. It may be the same for Europe. My guess, the fact that the prices on the euro guns has not gone up in the last four years is reflecting the stronger dollar. I dont think you will see any decrease to speak of unless you get lucky when the euro disintigrates, and the manufacturing countries convert back to a national currency.
The data do not support the conclusion that the strong dollar has kept euro gun prices constant.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=5Y

The exchange rate has bounced back and forth 3 times between a strong and weak dollar (~25% variations) since 2008. European target gun prices have remained more or less constant. 8-10% inflation between 2008 and now would have resulted in a price increase of over 50% if that number applied to target pistols, easily swamping the variation in exchange rate (which isn't monotonic anyway).

unfortunately, the short term movement of the exchange rate does little to bring down the price of target guns. A dealer in the US is unlikely to
pass on a tempory price drop if he gets lucky on his order date or delivery date because he has to sell his guns based on what the price may be on the next buy he makes, in essence, his inventory replacment costs. This makes the pricing for such a limited product as a target gun very inelastic in the US. I base part of this anaysis on the fact that the price for an AW-93 from Champions Choice is exactly the same now as it was in 2008. At the same time ammo costs are up 50 percent for American ammo. Maybe only 25 to 30 percent for euro ammo.

So, my prediction is, as the original poster asked, that prices will remain stable or go up from now on in the U.S. unless you are in a position to buy in Europe from someone who is willing to deal, and get a refund on the VAT, at a time when the exchange rate is favorable. I was fortunate enough to be living in Germany at a time when the dollar was gaining ground agaist the mark. Nothing beats being there, in order to cash in on a strong dollar.

kingsolo · Post by **kingsolo** » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:57 pm

Yeah, I live with this on a daily basis being here in Germany. It's at 0.79 EUR to $1 today. Well, it changed at 4pm for the weekend price, which I haven't heard yet. We all usually wait for a big swing (mid to high 0.8x Euro cents to the dollar) then we buy up like $5000-$10,000 worth and bank it in our German accounts. Helps to play the exchange rate sometimes, but if you are observant, or at least plan your major purchases, you can make out decently. I am praying that the Dollar keeps gaining on the EUR to the 1-1 point, then I'll flood the classifieds with $999 brand spanking new Rikas! LOL!